FX Commentary 09/09/14

Equities drifted lower while commodities were hit across the board. Energy, Metals and Agriculture commodities all walked backwards, which did not assist equities, but may reflect a rally in the reserve currency. Trade data from the powerhouse states of Germany, China and Japan all improved with leaps in Exports, while Imports were static, if not lower. These engines of manufacturing are performing well with the advantage of weak currencies (relatively) but unfortunately act as an island oasis while the rest of Europe collapses! The jump in the Dollar was reflected in the EUR, which fell to 1.2900, while the GBP was hammered with the prospect of a Scottish vote for independence. Polls are pointing to a breakup of the UK and the GBP plunged two big figures to trade 1.6110. Commodity prices hit the associated currencies, with the AUD slipping below 0.9300, while the NZD gave up the recently achieved 0.8300. The shaky peace treaty is semi-holding in the Ukraine and the US is consolidating forces to attack. Geo-Political concerns have declined and close attention is being paid to economic data and Central bank activity. Despite this weakness, the NZD is still trading strongly against the EUR and GBP, 0.6400 & 0.5110 respectively. The strongest gains were seen against the JPY, now trading at 87.40, and the AUD with the cross rate retesting 0.8900. With the political election quickly approaching, it is far from a sure thing for any party, this adds uncertainty to the currency markets and my scare off any big moves until after the ballot is counted.

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