Daily Commentary 30/12/2015

Equities turned south, in a big way overnight, in light Xmas/New Year trade. All the global economies problems remain so the Santa rally may be folly. Consumption of reality and revision of statistical measurement of data would see problems. The S&P Case Shiller home price index, put on some gains, but remain too volatile to…

Daily Commentary 24/12/2015

The Santa Rally continued on Wall Street, looking to wipe away the losses for 2015 on the DOW, while the NASDAQ improved the gains. U.S. Durable Goods Orders were flat, while New Home Sales improved 4.3%, sending mixed signals from the housing market. The University of Michigan Confidence reported a slight improvement, but most are…

Daily Commentary 23/12/2015

The Dollar sagged, as the Santa rally continued in equities, in a shortened and preoccupied week. U.S. GDP was reviewed lower, to 2%, while Existing Home Sales fell 10.5%. The economic data from the U.S. uninspiring, to say the least, while Europe remains flat. The Dollar drifted lower, allowing the AUD to break back above…

Daily Commentary 22/12/2015

Energy prices continued to bottom out, led by Oil, which is at more than 10 year lows. These prices are hitting energy producing nations hard, but providing a stimulus for the big consumers. Input prices are falling fast and consumer petrol prices are low, improving disposable incomes, acting as a Retail stimulus. U.S. Equities rebounded,…

Daily Commentary 21/12/2015

Equities were hit hard, again, as markets digested the impact of higher borrowing costs. The Fed is having a full frontal media assault, talking up the US economy, ignoring the global conditions. The World is swamped in Geo Political incarnations, on an unstable economic base, threatening the world. Confidence is key and that is hard…

Daily Commentary 18/12/2015

No surprises with the Fed raising rates, in line with expectations, so markets reflected that. The surprise, after the initial announcement, was that equities rallied. This was said to be a ‘relief rally’, but contradicts normal reaction, as raising the cost of money would lead to lower equities and higher Dollar. After digestion the markets…

Daily Commentary 17/12/2015

Markets were quiet ahead of the long awaited Fed rate decision. All expectations are for a 0.25% interest rate rise, which has been long telegraphed, thus built in to market reaction. A rise in rates should boost the Dollar and push equities and commodities lower, but ‘buy the rumour…’, should ensure no real big moves.…